No Substitute for Victory

I was impressed with the options we had on the bench on Saturday against St Mirren (Izaguirre, Wilson, Mathews, Commons, Stokes) and feel that the introduction of Commons and Stokes had a major impact on the outcome of the match. It got me thinking about our use of Substitutes and I took an analytical look at the use of substitutions at Celtic, leaving aside the tactical intricacy to others who do it so much better than I could. 

There was once a time in football when no substitutes were allowed, you picked your team and you had to stick to it, no second chances. In 1965 / 66 a rule was introduced to allow one substitution to replace an injured player. A further year later the rule was changed to allow a substitute on the basis of a tactical decision and it has progressed to the point where there is now a choice of five players to fill three substitute places. 

There are a number of famous Celtic Substitutes through our History. The first ever Celtic substitute appearance was made by Willie O’Neill on 03 September 1966 replacing Jimmy Johnstone in a match against St Mirren. John Fallon was the number 12 who sat on the bench against Inter Milan in 1967 making him the only Lisbon Lion not to actually play in the match. No one will ever forget the debut substitute appearance made by Henrik Larsson in 1997 when he gifted the ball away against Hibs setting up the winner for Chic Charnley. A name forever in my memory when I think of Celtic Substitutes is Joe Miller who I witnessed going on as a substitute against Aberdeen in a league cup Semi Final in 1989, only to be removed 20 minutes later by Billy McNeill. It was the ultimate embarrassment for a professional and he created a bigger media frenzy by taking his Jersey off and throwing it at the dug out.   

Once Neil Lennon sends out the team it is difficult for him to have an affect on the outcome of the match, his only real influence on the game is instructions shouted over the din of the crowd from the touchline, the half time team talk and the most critical of all in-game decisions - the timing and selection of the substitution. I wanted to take a look at how the Celtic Management have dealt with this aspect of the game and see how successful they have been in influencing the outcome of a match.   

Three’s a crowd

From reviewing the statistics the first conclusion you come to is that Neil Lennon likes to use his substitutes. In 72% of all games played since the start of the 2010 season Neil Lennon has utilised all three substitutes, this trend is consistent through the current season and suggests that Neil Lennon is an exponent of making the most of the resources he has available to him. There have only been two competitive matches since the start of the 2010 campaign that we have not used any substitutes, both last year against St Johnstone away and home to Rangers in the Scottish Cup. So in every game this season the bench has been utilised, the beauty of having a large and arguably the most talented squad in the country means that Neil Lennon has no hesitation in trusting those sitting alongside him on the bench.

Time for Change

You could usually set your watch for the 65 minute for a substitute when Gordon Strachan was in charge, or at least this is what I have now come to believe given the amount of times the guy sitting beside me used to point this out to me. From a study of the substitutions made in the EPL from last season the most popular range to bring on players was 76-80 minutes, with the 76^th minute being the time that most substitutes were made. For Celtic in season 2010 / 2011 the following substitution ranges were recorded;

Celtic Substitutes 2010/2011

Time Range of Substitute	Number of Substitutions	% of total Substitutions
0  –  45 Minutes	16	12%
46 – 55 Minutes	5	4%
56 – 65 Minutes	26	20%
66 – 75 Minutes	41	32%
76 – 85 Minutes	26	20%
86 – 90 Minutes	16	12%

Celtic Substitutes 2011/2012

Time Range of Substitute	Number of Substitutions	% of total Substitutions
0  –  45 Minutes	4	5%
46 – 55 Minutes	12	15%
56 – 65 Minutes	11	13%
66 – 75 Minutes	24	29%
76 – 85 Minutes	23	28%
86 – 90 Minutes	8	10%

As can be seen across the last two seasons Neil Lennon has been fairly consistent in favouring the earlier substitution in the 66-75 Minutes range, although only marginally so far this season. It could be argued that substitutions and the ability to make three changes in a match favours the bigger clubs who have larger first team squads, a right back playing for an SPL side could find himself marking a James Forrest for 70 minutes, only to be faced with a further 20 minutes of his replacement, say a Kris Commons or Georgie Samaras.

Playing the Percentages

The recent popularity surrounding the moneyball concept – that is using performance metrics to gain a competitive sporting advantage is a relatively new innovation to the man in the street, but clubs including Celtic, have been utilising this in some form for a good number of years. The use of performance data is now considered indispensible in professional football. Most top clubs now use Pro-zone analytical tools to evaluate player performance and design individually tailored training regimes.

Arsene Wenger is a well known stats obsessive, “the more concrete, objective numbers you have the better you can make Judgements on players’ If a clubs ethos and style of play is all about quick flowing football with fast passing speeds then a measure of the average time players spend on the ball is invaluable. Less time on the ball indicates a player with better technique and that he is in tune with the ethos. The overall mileage of players is no longer a key stat for the men looking to find the extra percentages between winning and finishing second.

For the clubs looking to find the extra percentages between winning and finishing second, they want to know the distance a player runs at top speed - his so-called high-intensity output. The stats can tell Neil Lennon at which point in a game each player starts to fall below his “High Intensity Output” and this is invaluable in allowing him to plan ahead for substitutions in a match. So looking at the number of times a player has been substituted makes for interesting reading. Beram Kayal has been removed early from the action on 23 occasions since the start of the 2010/11 season which when you consider the number of matches he has missed through long term injury is a staggering statistic. It could be suggested that Neil Lennon has recognised that Kayal plays with a high level of intensity from the first minute and that he hasn’t learned to temper this and pace himself to see out the 90mins. This would explain why in just over 50 matches for the club he has been substituted in nearly half of them! This is a case of a player having done his job and ran his race rather than being ineffectual. Another interesting statistic is that of Kris Commons from last season, seen by many as Celtics player of the last five months of the season. Of the 20 matches that Kris Commons started in he was substituted in 10 of them, similar to Kayal his performances perhaps show that his contribution decreases towards the last quarter of a match.

Sometimes a players inclusion in a team divides fans opinion and we wonder why a manager persists on leaving a player on while substituting others and Scott Brown falls into this category for Celtic. Looking at the last two seasons, outwith injury enforced substitutions there have only been four occasions where he has been removed from the action prior to the 85^th minute when the outcome of the match has been decided. This would suggest that Scott Browns high-intensity runs (at top speed) are amongst the best at the club and that his runs create space and opportunities for other players and keeps his opponent occupied for the whole of the match. The coaching staff will be privy to such information that the fans perhaps don’t see from the stands when they are focused on the whole game.

Strikers are always more susceptible to being substituted whether its because they have failed to score and the team needs a goal or they have scored and done their job and are being rested. Neil Lennon has substituted his top scorers Hooper – 24 times and Stokes 21 times. Another factor in substituting the strikers has been to accommodate a player who needs game time and a settling in period and Bangura is top of the table for players who have come off the bench with 11 substitution appearances.

The Game Changer

So how successful have the tactical switches been for Celtic? I analysed how substitutions made during the game impacted on the final outcome of a match to see how often we have had a game changer.

Scenario after substitutions	Season 2010/11	Season 2011/12
Losing or Drawing to Winning Match	8 Times	6 Times
Losing to Drawing Match	3 Times	1 Time
Losing Match – Match Lost	4 Times	4 Times
Drawing Match to Match Lost	1 Time	0 Times
Winning Match to Match Drawn	2 Times	1 Time

The results show that on 11 occasions last season and 7 occasions so far this term the introduction of substitutes has had a betterment effect on the outcome of the match, that’s points won that may have been lost but for the personnel changes. It could of course be argued that in some cases leaving the existing 11 on the park would have had the same effect but the tactical changes were made with the intention of getting those goals to retrieve the points so if the end product matches the intent then you need to acknowledge this. There have been 4 times in each season where we have been behind and the substitutions had no impact on the result, however these also include the European defeats. It is always the attacking substitutions that are remembered of course but just as important have been the midfielders or defensive substitutions that are sent on to close the game out and the good news is that there have only been 3 matches last year and 1 match this year (Udinese) where the end result of making a substitution has resulted in a worsening of the position. Statistics like these surely justify the Managers propensity to make the number of substitutions that he does.

Get Paddy McCourt on!!

This is the common cry amongst many Celtic Fans over the last few seasons when the team need to dig out a result, Paddy McCourt is the closest thing we have to a Super-Sub at the club. Many including myself feel that it is probably in his best long term career interests to go somewhere that he will get real game time to show off his talents, so why are the Celtic Coaches so keen to hold on to him despite the recent reported offer from Blackpool? Is Paddy a game changer?

Well the stats would seem to back up the theory. On analysing last season there were 10 occasions where Celtic were behind or drawing and chasing the match and Paddy McCourt was introduced as a tactical switch. On 6 of these occasions Celtic went on to either draw or win the match meaning Paddy had a 60% success rate in bettering our outcome. This season he has been involved in bettering our position on 2 out of 5 occasions when we have been trying to prevent points being dropped. Whether Paddy McCourt has been directly responsible for the match turnaround could again be open to debate but there are games where you can clearly identify his influence in changing the match such as his introduction at Fir Park recently.  

Looking forward for the rest of the season I can see the continued trend of Neil Lennon introducing all three Substitutes into the fray given the possible options he will have on his bench. As he looks to his bench and sees guys like Michael Lustig, Kelvin Wilson, Rabui Ibrahim, Kris Commons, Paddy McCourt, Dylan McGeough, Ki Seung Young, Stokes / Samaras available to him he must be confident that he has a number of real Game Changers.