Since When is Liquidation an Acceptable Business Decision?

I wrote in my blog on the 18^th January “You’s Lot on the Internet” that we should expect in the coming weeks the media campaign getting underway to put the case forward that any proposed Newco Rangers should be allowed re-entry into the SPL. Its been gradually building momentum on the airwaves in the last two weeks that anything other than a Rangers in the SPL is the death of our game, yes the death – its that dramatic. The big guns have now entered the fray to set the agenda that Rangers and the media would like us to accept, Jim Traynors sermon from on high last Monday was the starting point.   

Aside from any football matters I find the Daily Records standpoint on a business openly touting Administration and Liquidation to be nonchalant, almost accepting of this position as a normal business practice. A direct quote from the article states “Rangers would look at that situation and probably conclude that rather than struggle on for a few more years with uncertainty continuing to dog them, administration would be the more tempting option”. No condemnation of a company that has been wilfully mis-managed for the best part of a decade, no mention of the consequences of such an action, oh no wait there is a consequence to Liquidation here it comes. “Then again, if closing and starting up again gets rid of all debt these same supporters might actually warm to the idea, although they'd have to suffer many years of ridicule from others, especially Celtic fans” There it is the consequence of a Company walking away from its multi-million pound eye watering debt is a ribbing from Celtic fans.

Having been involved in Administration and Liquidation events through the course of my career I could only assume that Mr Traynor and his fellow proponents of this route have not been exposed to the absolute misery and destruction either of these events have on creditors, businesses large and small, employees and their families. The chain of creditors in such an event usually also have a further chain of creditors attached to them and the effect of a default on payment is usually a mortal blow. But interestingly it is only certain Administration / Liquidation events that are seen as acceptable as a quick search of the Daily Record would reveal. The reporting of the horrendous multi-victim Farepak scandal was heavy on emotion and condemnation giving rise to the following quotes being published “These people knew the company was going down Never mind being struck off - they should be made to pay back every penny. They should be in jail” - What? you mean a ribbing isn’t applicable here? This quote was in response to the reported news that an application had been made to have the Directors of Farepak disqualified from holding such positions in the future with any company. Hold on a minute, disqualified from being a director.. that rings a bell.  Of course the subject matter here is serious and the Daily Record have pitched this at the correct level, it’s the reporting of the Rangers situation that is way off target. Football Clubs should not be subject to any special dispensation.   

We have had the public admissions from Craig Whyte that administration is a possibility, we then had the reporting from the fans meeting where he commented that it would “not be the end of the world” if the existing Rangers did not survive. Forget Craig Whyte and look at them as a company; no audited accounts or AGM held as of yet and openly discussing the possibility of going out of business – remember the quote from above “These people knew the company was going down Never mind being struck off - they should be made to pay back every penny. They should be in jail” Yet they are allowed to keep spending, albeit modestly on bringing in new players and increasing the wages of the already top earners on 5 year deals.

Another very recent Daily Record reportage was that of the demise of Harte Construction in early January, under the headline “Rats deserting a sinking Ship” they went on to allege how four directors of the company had quit in the months leading up to administration and alleging that they must have known about the situation. That’s right they have called directors who they allege were aware of financial problems leading to a possible administration “Rats” there is no indifference attached to this scenario, no suggestion that this was in fact the best and most favourable solution. I can think of another company who are in a similar situation as this yet the language and tone being placed on it are polar opposites. On a side note the paper should have checked their facts on this particular story as they would have discovered that two of the directors were forced out as part of a rescue plan, one of them retired as planned and the bank withdrew their overdraft facility at a strategic moment. But don’t let facts cloud a story.

Back to Traynor and he further reasoned as to why this would be a logical route to go down in this apparent victimless event “.. it would be too difficult, if not impossible for them to secure sponsors and corporate clients, who might insist on buying boxes and seats on a game-by-game basis only. They'd also be worried players might refuse to commit if the club's future remained in serious doubt” aw diddums, because of their precarious financial position brought about by mis-management and alleged tax avoidance they might continue to suffer a downturn in their revenue and be unable to attract players. (seems like this is already happening) Imagine the injustice of that, a company who spent money they didn’t have instead of paying bills they did have, being curtailed due to people’s lack of confidence in their position, we can’t have that.

Who would be the victims in this scenario? The list is far reaching from fringe players and youth players / coaches, office staff, suppliers of goods and services to Rangers, other football clubs (hearts for one as an example), support staff, advertisers but more importantly you and me! a £49 million hole in the public purse on top of any other existing debts to creditors and public bodies. As for any players losing their livelihood at least they have the full backing of the PFA and former Rangers player Fraser Wishart who as we speak must be knocking at Mr Whytes door with a soft sponge demanding answers on his member’s behalf.

There is of course a possibility that there will be another 40,000 creditors (victims) who seem blissfully in denial but will face a test of their confidence in a few months. The season ticket renewals will become due in a few months time, if the club are still awaiting a result from the tax case and have managed to limp on then this will be the next lifeline for them. Faced with the prospect of seeing your £400 - £500 stake going down the drain before you even got to the start of this season it would take a great leap of faith in the current regime to part with that money. I stand to be corrected but I am sure that there will be no option available to Rangers fans to phase their payments throughout the next season in either 3 or 10 instalments as is usually the norm. Its money up front, £16 million which depending on the timing could disappear into a swamp of debt with each and every supporter being a single creditor. Would a Newco starting out honour this? I would doubt it could afford to lose its first years main income stream given there is no TV deal in the third division. They could offer a discount on the new season tickets maybe as a goodwill gesture, what’s the going rate for a third division Season Ticket these days?  

When you hear or read about people discussing this issue, remove the individuals from the scenario like the poor patsy Craig Whyte - who has willingly inherited this. Rangers are a Company like any other in our business world who in an attempt to avoid paying due revenues to a relevant tax authority by using a pre-meditated avoidance plan gained an advantage over other companies. Like the Farepak directors, if found guilty they would have invested and squandered money that did not belong to them.  

No Substitute for Victory

I was impressed with the options we had on the bench on Saturday against St Mirren (Izaguirre, Wilson, Mathews, Commons, Stokes) and feel that the introduction of Commons and Stokes had a major impact on the outcome of the match. It got me thinking about our use of Substitutes and I took an analytical look at the use of substitutions at Celtic, leaving aside the tactical intricacy to others who do it so much better than I could. 

There was once a time in football when no substitutes were allowed, you picked your team and you had to stick to it, no second chances. In 1965 / 66 a rule was introduced to allow one substitution to replace an injured player. A further year later the rule was changed to allow a substitute on the basis of a tactical decision and it has progressed to the point where there is now a choice of five players to fill three substitute places. 

There are a number of famous Celtic Substitutes through our History. The first ever Celtic substitute appearance was made by Willie O’Neill on 03 September 1966 replacing Jimmy Johnstone in a match against St Mirren. John Fallon was the number 12 who sat on the bench against Inter Milan in 1967 making him the only Lisbon Lion not to actually play in the match. No one will ever forget the debut substitute appearance made by Henrik Larsson in 1997 when he gifted the ball away against Hibs setting up the winner for Chic Charnley. A name forever in my memory when I think of Celtic Substitutes is Joe Miller who I witnessed going on as a substitute against Aberdeen in a league cup Semi Final in 1989, only to be removed 20 minutes later by Billy McNeill. It was the ultimate embarrassment for a professional and he created a bigger media frenzy by taking his Jersey off and throwing it at the dug out.   

Once Neil Lennon sends out the team it is difficult for him to have an affect on the outcome of the match, his only real influence on the game is instructions shouted over the din of the crowd from the touchline, the half time team talk and the most critical of all in-game decisions - the timing and selection of the substitution. I wanted to take a look at how the Celtic Management have dealt with this aspect of the game and see how successful they have been in influencing the outcome of a match.   

Three’s a crowd

From reviewing the statistics the first conclusion you come to is that Neil Lennon likes to use his substitutes. In 72% of all games played since the start of the 2010 season Neil Lennon has utilised all three substitutes, this trend is consistent through the current season and suggests that Neil Lennon is an exponent of making the most of the resources he has available to him. There have only been two competitive matches since the start of the 2010 campaign that we have not used any substitutes, both last year against St Johnstone away and home to Rangers in the Scottish Cup. So in every game this season the bench has been utilised, the beauty of having a large and arguably the most talented squad in the country means that Neil Lennon has no hesitation in trusting those sitting alongside him on the bench.

Time for Change

You could usually set your watch for the 65 minute for a substitute when Gordon Strachan was in charge, or at least this is what I have now come to believe given the amount of times the guy sitting beside me used to point this out to me. From a study of the substitutions made in the EPL from last season the most popular range to bring on players was 76-80 minutes, with the 76^th minute being the time that most substitutes were made. For Celtic in season 2010 / 2011 the following substitution ranges were recorded;

Celtic Substitutes 2010/2011

Time Range of Substitute	Number of Substitutions	% of total Substitutions
0  –  45 Minutes	16	12%
46 – 55 Minutes	5	4%
56 – 65 Minutes	26	20%
66 – 75 Minutes	41	32%
76 – 85 Minutes	26	20%
86 – 90 Minutes	16	12%

Celtic Substitutes 2011/2012

Time Range of Substitute	Number of Substitutions	% of total Substitutions
0  –  45 Minutes	4	5%
46 – 55 Minutes	12	15%
56 – 65 Minutes	11	13%
66 – 75 Minutes	24	29%
76 – 85 Minutes	23	28%
86 – 90 Minutes	8	10%

As can be seen across the last two seasons Neil Lennon has been fairly consistent in favouring the earlier substitution in the 66-75 Minutes range, although only marginally so far this season. It could be argued that substitutions and the ability to make three changes in a match favours the bigger clubs who have larger first team squads, a right back playing for an SPL side could find himself marking a James Forrest for 70 minutes, only to be faced with a further 20 minutes of his replacement, say a Kris Commons or Georgie Samaras.

Playing the Percentages

The recent popularity surrounding the moneyball concept – that is using performance metrics to gain a competitive sporting advantage is a relatively new innovation to the man in the street, but clubs including Celtic, have been utilising this in some form for a good number of years. The use of performance data is now considered indispensible in professional football. Most top clubs now use Pro-zone analytical tools to evaluate player performance and design individually tailored training regimes.

Arsene Wenger is a well known stats obsessive, “the more concrete, objective numbers you have the better you can make Judgements on players’ If a clubs ethos and style of play is all about quick flowing football with fast passing speeds then a measure of the average time players spend on the ball is invaluable. Less time on the ball indicates a player with better technique and that he is in tune with the ethos. The overall mileage of players is no longer a key stat for the men looking to find the extra percentages between winning and finishing second.

For the clubs looking to find the extra percentages between winning and finishing second, they want to know the distance a player runs at top speed - his so-called high-intensity output. The stats can tell Neil Lennon at which point in a game each player starts to fall below his “High Intensity Output” and this is invaluable in allowing him to plan ahead for substitutions in a match. So looking at the number of times a player has been substituted makes for interesting reading. Beram Kayal has been removed early from the action on 23 occasions since the start of the 2010/11 season which when you consider the number of matches he has missed through long term injury is a staggering statistic. It could be suggested that Neil Lennon has recognised that Kayal plays with a high level of intensity from the first minute and that he hasn’t learned to temper this and pace himself to see out the 90mins. This would explain why in just over 50 matches for the club he has been substituted in nearly half of them! This is a case of a player having done his job and ran his race rather than being ineffectual. Another interesting statistic is that of Kris Commons from last season, seen by many as Celtics player of the last five months of the season. Of the 20 matches that Kris Commons started in he was substituted in 10 of them, similar to Kayal his performances perhaps show that his contribution decreases towards the last quarter of a match.

Sometimes a players inclusion in a team divides fans opinion and we wonder why a manager persists on leaving a player on while substituting others and Scott Brown falls into this category for Celtic. Looking at the last two seasons, outwith injury enforced substitutions there have only been four occasions where he has been removed from the action prior to the 85^th minute when the outcome of the match has been decided. This would suggest that Scott Browns high-intensity runs (at top speed) are amongst the best at the club and that his runs create space and opportunities for other players and keeps his opponent occupied for the whole of the match. The coaching staff will be privy to such information that the fans perhaps don’t see from the stands when they are focused on the whole game.

Strikers are always more susceptible to being substituted whether its because they have failed to score and the team needs a goal or they have scored and done their job and are being rested. Neil Lennon has substituted his top scorers Hooper – 24 times and Stokes 21 times. Another factor in substituting the strikers has been to accommodate a player who needs game time and a settling in period and Bangura is top of the table for players who have come off the bench with 11 substitution appearances.

The Game Changer

So how successful have the tactical switches been for Celtic? I analysed how substitutions made during the game impacted on the final outcome of a match to see how often we have had a game changer.

Scenario after substitutions	Season 2010/11	Season 2011/12
Losing or Drawing to Winning Match	8 Times	6 Times
Losing to Drawing Match	3 Times	1 Time
Losing Match – Match Lost	4 Times	4 Times
Drawing Match to Match Lost	1 Time	0 Times
Winning Match to Match Drawn	2 Times	1 Time

The results show that on 11 occasions last season and 7 occasions so far this term the introduction of substitutes has had a betterment effect on the outcome of the match, that’s points won that may have been lost but for the personnel changes. It could of course be argued that in some cases leaving the existing 11 on the park would have had the same effect but the tactical changes were made with the intention of getting those goals to retrieve the points so if the end product matches the intent then you need to acknowledge this. There have been 4 times in each season where we have been behind and the substitutions had no impact on the result, however these also include the European defeats. It is always the attacking substitutions that are remembered of course but just as important have been the midfielders or defensive substitutions that are sent on to close the game out and the good news is that there have only been 3 matches last year and 1 match this year (Udinese) where the end result of making a substitution has resulted in a worsening of the position. Statistics like these surely justify the Managers propensity to make the number of substitutions that he does.

Get Paddy McCourt on!!

This is the common cry amongst many Celtic Fans over the last few seasons when the team need to dig out a result, Paddy McCourt is the closest thing we have to a Super-Sub at the club. Many including myself feel that it is probably in his best long term career interests to go somewhere that he will get real game time to show off his talents, so why are the Celtic Coaches so keen to hold on to him despite the recent reported offer from Blackpool? Is Paddy a game changer?

Well the stats would seem to back up the theory. On analysing last season there were 10 occasions where Celtic were behind or drawing and chasing the match and Paddy McCourt was introduced as a tactical switch. On 6 of these occasions Celtic went on to either draw or win the match meaning Paddy had a 60% success rate in bettering our outcome. This season he has been involved in bettering our position on 2 out of 5 occasions when we have been trying to prevent points being dropped. Whether Paddy McCourt has been directly responsible for the match turnaround could again be open to debate but there are games where you can clearly identify his influence in changing the match such as his introduction at Fir Park recently.  

Looking forward for the rest of the season I can see the continued trend of Neil Lennon introducing all three Substitutes into the fray given the possible options he will have on his bench. As he looks to his bench and sees guys like Michael Lustig, Kelvin Wilson, Rabui Ibrahim, Kris Commons, Paddy McCourt, Dylan McGeough, Ki Seung Young, Stokes / Samaras available to him he must be confident that he has a number of real Game Changers.

YOU’S LOT ON THE INTERNET! – YES HE MEANS YOU

According to recently published internet usage statistics this recent sweeping generalisation by Hugh Keevins on the Clyde “Super” Scoreboard encompasses 82% of the population. This frustrated shriek sounded like the caretaker of an alleged haunted hotel who had just been un-masked on Scooby Doo. There is an element of life imitating fiction in this analogy as in truth if it wasn’t for you pesky kids on the internet they would be getting away with it too.

It appears to be a common held opinion amongst many of the hacks, particularly those on the airwaves that people in the habit of contributing to the world of online social media do not hold views worthy of consideration and are to be condescended. These are some of the self same people who were gladly tolerated at supporter’s functions and the like in the late eighties; but then I suppose there were five books to sell and the customer is always right. There was an add on to one such rebuke on a recent show about how these people on the internet have caused terrible situations that the police are having to deal with. 



There is a small percentage of unfathomable people who use the internet to peddle abuse and cause harm to others, these people have existed in every generation and every walk of life. The use of the internet is now predominantly their preferred tool of communicating their message of hate and abuse. These are the same collection of people who in the past would send poison pen letters, heavy breathers down the phone line or make hoax calls to the emergency services. That these people now use the internet instead should not cloud people’s judgement on the other 81% of the population who use it without crime.

It fits the old medias agenda to portray a different story and make those unfamiliar with the online community suspicious and wary of it and make those who actually contribute to it or follow it feel like a bungling extremist. I believe there are two main reasons for this; the realisation that the established old media is in decline and the awareness that those pesky people on the internet are actually better informed than them. Both of the reasons at their source have the underlying fear that there is a shift in power.

The global decline of the newspaper industry is well documented, it stands to reason that a drop in sales leads to a drop in the amount it can command for its advertising and whilst titles have online versions, the print pound is more valuable than the digital penny. Burdened with large fixed costs they are vulnerable to the downturn in sales as people find alternative ways of accessing their news. Some commentators have studied the trend in falling sales through the world and predict a timeline for the extinction of Newspapers across the continents with the UK being one of the first to fall in 2019. This information was from the internet so it must be a misinformed extremist view though – right?

Putting the Global decline aside and concentrating on the sport pages of our own Daily / Sunday papers it is not hard to see why people have turned away from the old media. In the good old days before the pesky internet you had limited choices; you bought the paper in the morning, you bought the Celtic view once a week and you listened to BBC Scotland or Radio Clyde. On the morning Maurice Johnstone signed for Celtic in 1989 I remember being in the kitchen having breakfast when it came on Clyde Sport, the news of him not signing for Celtic (and everyone remembers where they were) was discovered by walking into a newsagents and seeing the front page of a tabloid. The days of the media breaking stories in this way no longer exists for the majority of people. Tuesday’s signing of Jaroslaw Fojut was broken by Celtic via a twiiter link to its website and quickly followed up by online contributors providing career background stats and opinion on his attributes. Within 10 minutes of the signing being announced there was nothing left to find out, rendering the purchase of a paper or listening to the radio sports desks redundant. By following a small number of people in the Celtic Twitter Family you have access to the Celtic news and views immediately.

The power previously held by the old sports media in this country was immense, the sports editors could set the agenda or agendas of others and the common man in the street had no other source to dispute the validity of the piece – a hole eventually plugged by fanzines like Not the View. Coupled with this if you had a platform on the airwaves to reinforce the agenda then the stranglehold on the sports news was complete. Think for a second about how the current Rangers Tax Case story would have been massaged and manipulated if there was no other form of media. Stories of potential global brand moonbeams, super casinos and whiz kids with wealth off the scale would have a gullible and accepting audience whilst the severity of the tax case would be dismissed with reports of negotiations going on with the top brass in the HMRC in London. Without the quality of online contributions from unpaid yet vastly more informed individuals the tax case would have been allowed to creep up with the similar type of silence normally only reserved for a Celtic goal in a David Begg Commentary.   

The acknowledgement that the material produced on the internet via blogs like the Rangerstaxcase is well informed and erudite, is hard to reconcile for the older generation of the media who have had a cartel on dictating the sports agenda for decades. The claim by some that they have never viewed that particular blog is hard to believe as equipping yourself with as much knowledge on a subject that is the biggest story in decades is surely a competence, unless of course you don’t want or are not allowed to demonstrate your knowledge to a wider audience. You can hear the discomfort on a nightly basis on Radio Clyde (if you so wish) as reasoned people ask reasonable questions and make reasoned points signifying they know more than has been or will ever be reported.

The attempt to set the agenda is already underway by the old media who have one eye on the worst case scenario as you will no doubt be familiar with the “Celtic need Rangers” Mantra or the “Scottish football would implode” Mantra. In the event of a Newco Rangers emerging in the future they are starting the campaign to rip up the SPL statutes and allow them to be lifted over the turnstyle. Its all about self preservation and why not? the demise or decline of the club who provides your publication with the majority of your readership is obviously going to hit your figures hard, perhaps even a mortal blow. 

But of course those pesky folk on the internet are going to keep meddling and stop them getting away with it - and they know way too much.   

Panic Stations – Grounds for Alarm?

There is a relatively new phenomenon at Parkhead these days, one which is as common place on match day as the half time windfall ticket aeroplane display or the laziest ball boy contest. An anxiety has slowly crept into the match day experience, not the anxiety you get when you scan your season card and for a split second think the light is going to turn red, no it’s the 80th minute anxiety. It’s been around in the atmosphere for the last couple of seasons but has taken on a whole new level this season and it’s becoming infectious spreading its way to more and more fans.      

Panic n – a sudden, overpowering terror, often affecting many people at once; groundless fear in herds or crowds.

The above definition confirms the prognosis – we as a support are pressing the panic button, usually around the 80th minute mark, although some go as early as the 1^st minute (like the guy behind me). The only folk not affected by the Panic are the perennial leavers who regardless of the score forfeit 10 mins of the match to make a quick getaway, I always square this by assuming they are heading for the vigil. So are there any real grounds for this panic and mass hysteria which might eventually have a knock on effect on the pitch.

In my own mind I believe that the experiences of last season are fresh in the mind and the month of late November / early December 2010 in which we dropped vital points remains a real regret when looking back on that campaign. It is worth noting that in only two games last season did we lose goals in the last 10 minutes of a match, in the matches against Inverness and Dundee United. Crucially the loss of these two late goals cost us 4 points in games which we looked comfortable and in the final analysis were as damaging as the loss to Inverness away or the samaras penalty which are often held up as reasons for losing the title.

But that was last year, we now seem to have a different mentality altogether. Whilst the panic rains down from the stands the players have not wilted and the statistics show a real resilience and trend towards belying the grounds for the anxiety in the stands. Thus far this season we have again lost just two goals in the final 10 minutes of the match against Dunfermline and Kilmarnock - only this time at no cost to our points. Like the goal conceded against Dundee United on Saturday the strike by Kilmarnock that day was from outside the box, nestling just inside the post out of Fosters reach. The goals conceded in this period never came as a result of sustained pressure in which our defence were finally breached, they were hats off, fairs fair cracking goals that the player would struggle to replicate.

Further analysis of our results show that on 8 occasions this season we have won a match by a single goal margin 1-0 or 2-1 which accounts for over 43% of our points tally so far. From this kind of form it could be conceivably argued that in actual fact we are very good at defending and maintaining a slender lead as a result of the teams concentration and discipline. Such winning margins were always the trademark of the Arsenal team of the 90’s whose defence was so resolute that 1-0 margins were the order of the day to the extent it elicited the famous chant of “1-0 to the arsenal”. Like the game against Kilmarnock or Dunfermline when you look back on the Dundee United match on Saturday there were never really any sustained periods of pressure or that the team were showing signs of being over-run.

The management team and players will be taking a lot of confidence from these narrow victories just as much as a two nil or a three nil because it shows that when games are tight and chances are at a premium at the other end, we have the confidence from our track record to believe we can win these games. As Neil Lennon commented post match on Saturday we have no devine right to think these games are a foregone conclusion and there will be more of these types of results to come in season.

The stakes are high this season, we need to stop four in a row and we all would love to see this Lennon team win its first title and push on from there so anxiety is bound to be a natural emotion at the match, however winning games by a one goal margin is part of football and a part we seem to be getting pretty good at so maybe we need to remember that next time we reach for the red button.

Keep the Faith