Its Not Life. It’s Only 3 Years for Bad Behaviour

We have all been exposed now to the blackmail from the media that Football would come to an end if a Rangers 2012 NEWCO was to start its new life in a Scottish Third Division, some of us will have heard Rangers supporters desperately grasping at straws stating that Celtic need Rangers. I say lets dare to dream, lets try it out because we have been told for years that Scottish Football was dying anyway, so what’s to lose? This might be the chance to change it for the better.

The logic trotted out by those who are spreading the propaganda is that without Rangers in the SPL there would be decreased TV Money; gates would be down, Celtic would win the League for the next three or four years and have direct access into the Champions League qualifier. Some of this is true, some of it might be detrimental, however is it all going to signal the death knell for Scottish football? As a result should we introduce a cap on the punishment for systematic, premeditated cheating and fiscal recklessness? By using this argument the blame is being shifted on to those clubs who have managed their affairs and are living within their means. You surely can’t kill Scottish Football by not agreeing to this?

Let there be no doubt this is coming, if the current figures being quoted are correct, then irrespective of any tax case judgement Rangers are heading towards insolvency. The assets Rangers have are dwindling; their top playing asset went for £5million, how much would you get in a fire sale for the rest of the squad? A large percentage of four years of future ticket sales have been removed. A company with a current estimated hole of £35-40 million which may rise to double that in the event of the tax case going against them is not going to be able to trade its way out of Administration – forget it, it’s not going to happen. Could they even prove that they are solvent just now? There are only so many years in advance you can sell the season tickets. Craig Whyte has stated this money has been securitised against one of his other companies. £24 million is an awful big asset to securitize and how much per annum is the club paying on top of this in interest charges?  

The stadium is the most valuable asset for a Newco to get a hold of, without the stadium they have nowhere to play and maintain their fan base and it’s interesting to note that the one place where Mr Whyte seems to have invested in is the stadium, £4 million if he is to be believed! It would appear that the most valuable asset is being protected. Whoever gets the stadium has the new club as any other applicant with a Newco related to Rangers would not succeed without it. Good business for a £1 you have to admit and whether or not Mr Whyte intends to continue with Rangers beyond that point remains to be seen however he would be in a tasty bargaining position if he doesn’t.

For many years in the early Nineties Celtic were no better placed than say Dundee United or Motherwell, we gave no challenge to Rangers at the time and were finishing out with the top three positions in the league. This break up of the “Big Two’s” cartel of dominance in the league wasn’t bemoaned as the end of football as we knew it, the media revelled in the Rangers charge to title after title beating nearest challengers Aberdeen or Motherwell and gaining straight entry into the Champions League which brought them untold riches. They out spent every other club in the league, including themselves it now transpires. All we could do was sit back and spectate from afar as the dismal board provided scant funds that lead to some of the most unworthy players pulling on the hoops. Crowds at Parkhead were an all time low and it was a few years before 20,000 people returned to join the hard core followers.

But you know what? it was all our own fault, or at least the clubs own fault, we had got ourselves into that mess through fiscal mismanagement and we were suffering the consequences for years to come.  We can look back at that time in our history when the tide changed and the Rebels won and pinpoint it as the starting point of our recovery. We all chipped in with time, money and sacrifice but the most important thing is that we the fans done it all ourselves and I of course here include Fergus as a fan – we had no bail outs from outside agencies; we had no bills waivered, left no bills un-paid and certainly no bending of the rules. We never asked or expected it.

Why the clamour now to bestow such privileges and unwarranted discretion on a Newco Entity? There are no precedents for this event, people will conveniently say there are but never before have a club in the SPL went into liquidation, folded and re-emerged as a Newco, it’s a new case but one which will set a precedent for the future. The SFA have a say in what happens in the SPL decision, they must issue any new club with a licence prior to it gaining entry. Given what has occurred, surely the SFA would have to be stricter with their licensing – imagine the applicant was one Mr Craig Whyte – fit and proper person? Upon issuing a new licence the Newco should start at the bottom of the league structure, the Scottish Division 3.

The clause stating that Rangers are the exception to the rule as this would be the death of Scottish Football does not appear to have been included in the statute. Where it has been included is within the Television Deal for the SPL negotiated by Mr Doncaster recently for £80 million on the back of increased viewing figures commencing next season for 5 years. The amount each year is divided up on a sliding scale from 1^st to 12^th weighted heavily in favour of the top two finishers. But how did they end up in the bargaining position where there had to be a clause guaranteeing four Old firm games a season? The deal was an improvement on the previous deal but how much money would have been removed from the deal to leave Sky with that risk instead of eliminating it for them? The deal might have been negotiated down slightly on a risk analysis at that time by Sky to cover that eventuality but it would have been the deal that complied with the SPL rules. Don’t be brainwashed into thinking there would be no deal without Rangers, there would be, the only problem is that the SPL’s negotiating position would be weakened now if they went back to Sky as the risk would have been realised.

The contract then not only safeguards Rangers from relegation but surely it also means it guarantees them a top six place as this is the only way you get to play four times? How do the other clubs really feel about that, how would a Kilmarnock in sixth place enjoy stepping aside for a Bill Struth Utd that finished in 7^th place? How would Dunfermline feel to be relegated while a new entity takes their place? How would a Dundee United feel if Bill Struth Utd was able to poach away their best striker on a pre-contract because it could afford to pay more wages having walked away from £70 million of debt?. How would the Celtic fans and the board feel when they were being gazumped by Bill Struth Utd when both chasing the same player because they are starting from a position of strength.   

Rather than just amending the rules for one club by planting the fear of no TV money into the mind of other SPL clubs why are the SPL not having discussions with Sky in the background to see what the fall back position is with an amended deal? At this point the remaining clubs could be canvassed with a proposed new deal and maybe even out of the kindness of Celtic’s heart they would agree to a more amicable split of the allocation to lessen the blow. Is this happening behind the scenes? If not, then why not? because it’s not going to come as a surprise.

Lets be realistic, its not life without Rangers it would only be 3 years before they worked their way back up through the divisions; spreading their wealth amongst the likes of Stranraer and Albion Rovers on the way, what a boost that would be to these leagues. And Rangers fans should look on the bright side they would be able to dust down the song book every week as there would be no TV coverage of their games to expose it!

I took a look at the average attendances of the clubs in the SPL and calculated the loss of income through their gates by losing out on a visit from the ogres as we are always told these pay days keep the other clubs going right? Instead of just printing the figures I thought I would present it in the form of how many additional fans per game a season would each club have to attract to offset the loss;

Club	Additional Number of fans required to be attracted per game
Celtic	972
Motherwell	509
Aberdeen	293
St Johnstone	280
Dundee Utd	259
Kilmarnock	219
Hearts	138
Inverness	131
St Mirren	95
Hibernian	89

As you can see, apart from Celtic the biggest losers would be Motherwell who may well struggle to attract an additional 500 fans per week but the rest of the teams, given the added attraction of an additional euro spot to fight for and a second place would surely be able to entice those numbers back to their ground or at least a large percentage of those numbers.

We live in austere times, the country and those who rule over us are cutting their cloth, cutting spending, freezing wages and learning to live with a lot less money so why should the SPL not be any different? Life is tough, you need to adapt to change and make the most of limited resources and for the SPL this means 3 years of a potential reduced TV deal. The alternative is to give a free pass to cheating and systematic mismanagement of finances in order to gain advantage over your competitors and opens the door to others to do the same thing.   

3 Years for Bad Behaviour? Not bad because It SHOULD be a life sentence.